Folding Forum

@glad1us
Risk management. You only have few resources so manage them in a smart way

I agree completely, which is why I defer to Dr. Chodera and his associates, who are infinitely more knowledgeable than I am, for guidance. My underlying concern is that the advent of Covid-19 vaccines may cause some people to stop folding altogether: particularly those like me who came on board as the virus began spreading.

glad1us wrote:But how do you know how it will mutate?

Viruses always mutate. It is just a question of whether they get more deadly.
But how can you be sure that the present Folding effort will be useful even on the present virus?

glad1us wrote:But how do you know how it will mutate?

This is not the first corona virus. Others have mutated so there's a pretty good chance this one will, too.

There's a strong suspicion that those who have survived the disease are now immune to it hence the theory of "herd immunity" (whether from having naturally developed the antibodies or from the presence of them in the faccine.

The only firuses survive in the wild is to mutate and find another target to attack.

psaam0001 wrote:I too am feeling worn from some of this "new normal", to the point where I wish we could live our lives as normally as possible--while being mindful to take precautions.

At some point, life must resume.

Just my thoughts.

Paul

The 'new normal' is just a media description,
It's not new (in the early 1900s, people also needed to wear masks when the Spanish Flu hit)
And it's not normal,
And it won't be normal forever. In a good few months we'll start looking back year after year, no masks were needed. And life with Covid will be forgotten, like the 1939 NY stock exchange crash, or the spanish flu. It'll just be part of history.

MeeLee wrote:And it won't be normal forever. In a good few months we'll start looking back year after year, no masks were needed. And life with Covid will be forgotten, like the 1939 NY stock exchange crash, or the spanish flu. It'll just be part of history.

Some things will probably stick around. There is a question of whether movie theaters will recover. Also, I think working from home has gotten a boost that it needed. And the travel industry will be changed, though I wasn't planning to take a cruise ship anyway. I expect industries will investigate where they locate a bit differently too. They will want a workforce and public health facilities that know how to deal with a pandemic. This may not be the last one.

All they will need to do is just install UV lights in their AC systems, as Flus or any other viruses don't spread the world in a day.
There will be agencies around the world monitoring diseases (like the WHO), and will be much quicker mandating travel bans, and masks when an outbreak happens.
But I don't see much other travel restrictions happening.
Many airline companies may have gone bankrupt, but others will take over.
Travel from home-work will be less. And some people will prefer home schooling over public schools. I mean, it makes sense, some moms are home, taking care of the babies, why not take care of the others that go to school as well (and don't have dad pay money for school from a single pay check supporting the family)?

The pandemic is not over. The politicians want to take credit for there being a vaccine, but it will take 6 months before enough folks have received the jab and developed the required immunities.

This also won't be the last coronavirus we'll ever see, so learning more about it can inform how we deal with others too.

MeeLee wrote:why not take care of the others that go to school as well (and don't have dad pay money for school from a single pay check supporting the family)?

Note the difference between baby sitting and education. Home schooling is not easier than sending the children to school - even in a family where only one of the parents works, that parent also has to help out with the schooling - so it's more like 3 jobs shared by 2 people (day job, home schooling and child care) than one person working and the other laying about. There are also often home school co-op's where from time to time parents from several families share in educating each other's children in various subjects.

The pandemic has shown that we can use distance learning and home offices for a lot of things, like getting rid of driving for 3 hours for a 30 minute meeting for example. But it has also shown how important it is to meet in person and get out of the house. Meeting other children and adults is healthy, and especially important for the younger children. So the lessons learned from both human behavior and corona viruses will be important going forward. Imagine if we actually can block all coronavirus variants with a therapeutic.

MeeLee wrote:All they will need to do is just install UV lights in their AC systems, as Flus or any other viruses don't spread the world in a day.
There will be agencies around the world monitoring diseases (like the WHO), and will be much quicker mandating travel bans, and masks when an outbreak happens.
But I don't see much other travel restrictions happening.
<...>

Seems like SARS-CoV-2 *did* spread globally in weeks, thanks in large part of aviation.

Until citizens fully grasp the magnitude of how and why the preventative measures work, expect some level of isolation to continue to assist in mitigating this issue.

The fight is far from over.

There are still dying about 12000 individuals a day, somewhere about 350000 a month and it will take minimum 1/2 year to get sufficient effects from vaccination. So calculate at least 1 million more people dying before vaccination gets any effect.

What do we do if during that time a mutated variant of the virus shows up that makes the vaccinations we apply now effectless? Vaccines may be adopted, we may start to give the new version, but that means that vaccination has to be started over. On the opposite, therapeutics don't have to be applied in advance, but may be developed and applied in parallel to changing virus characteristics.

Vaccination will always be at least 1/2 year behind changes in the virus, considering that a mutation first has to be isolated, then identified to require a modified vaccine, then the modified vaccine to be developed and certified, then delivered to 1/2 of world population.

I'm convinced that therapeutics will be required further on and we should work hard to get them available.

Some thoughts from a mere volunteer who is not "in the know"

1) the first vaccine is not always the best vaccine, Polio was 'defeated' by the Salk vaccine, but it is essentially never used today. The Sabin vaccine really did 'defeat' Polio and was used for decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vac ... %80%931955

So just because we have vaccines is no reason not to look for better solutions.

2) In general, researchers are going to resist dropping research in the middle of development. Even failed research tells you much more than abandoned research.

3) Many researchers for F@H are in an academic setting where "Publish or Perish" rules. They need results, even failed results to advance in their careers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publish_or_perish

They had to abandon research to devote to COVID-19, you can't ask them to abandon their research again. (I do hope they can eventually resume their older research, but that may requre going back to older Cores. Volunteers will hate going back to older Cores)

JimboPalmer wrote:1) the first vaccine is not always the best vaccine, Polio was 'defeated' by the Salk vaccine, but it is essentially never used today. The Sabin vaccine really did 'defeat' Polio and was used for decades.

In the US a descendant of the Salk vaccine is the only one currently licensed for use, the oral vaccine developed by Sabin is not used any longer due to the chance of contracting a case of polio. The Sabin vaccine is still used elsewhere, the greater protection from food/water borne polio is seen as outweighing the small chance of getting it from the vaccine itself.

Thank You!, always good to know more!

The main issue with Covid right now, is mass production of the vaccine.
Apparently the world had the worst version of covid. The newer strains are less aggressive (though more contageous), and possibly work like a vaccine (in that most people just get a mild form of flu, and at the same time build up resistance to the heavier strain of Covid).